Prompt · Strategy

Strategic Bet Evaluator

Steelmans both sides of a big bet, scores it, and recommends do it, kill it, or test it.

Have ready: Describe the bet, the capital at stake, and the decision deadline

Fill in · 4 fields

describe the betamount of money, time, or headcountdateyour company's core thesis

Your prompt

Evaluate this strategic bet: [describe the bet]. The capital at stake is [amount of money, time, or headcount] and the decision deadline is [date]. First, steelman the case FOR the bet in 4 bullet points, then steelman the case AGAINST it in 4 bullet points - make both sides genuinely strong. Then score the bet 1-5 on: reversibility, expected value vs. cost, fit with [your company's core thesis], and what we learn even if it fails. Give a clear recommendation: do it, kill it, or shrink it into an experiment. If an experiment, design the cheapest test that resolves the biggest uncertainty.

Paste it into Muse or any assistant. Blank fields stay as [brackets].

More like this

OKR Sanity Check

Board Deck Critique

Scenario Planning Trio

Positioning Statement Draft

SWOT With Teeth

The Moat Audit